Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Wait DXY. – MT is sideways normal. The dollar index is again pressing towards the top of the long-term range at 97.70. Despite a more dovish central bank the USD remains strong. This is because the main counterparts are also dovish. US trade talks with China are ongoing and the noises are positive with the sense that it will still take time. This is seen to be supportive of the USD. Data is perhaps not as weak at the market is pricing in. NFP is on Friday. Look to buy above 0.98.
- Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways normal. The GBP has found support at 1.30. The sense is that there will be no Brexit deal and it is likely that a longer extension to the exit timeline of a year or more will be sought. This does leave open the tail risk of a hard Brexit on April 14th. Technically, buying from support at 1.28 is a good option, but given the tail risk I would recommend waiting.
- Sell USD/JPY. – MT is bear normal. As yet there has been no follow though on the bear MT, though we are just holding onto it. Stocks have risen, but remain technically vulnerable. Bond yields remain week though there is some topping action in place. Wait for a resumption of the downtrend before selling.
- Wait AUD/USD. – MT is sideways normal. The Aussie remains in the long-term downtrend, but the bottoming pattern is in place and has not yet been invalidated. The China/ US trade talk progress as well as the rebound in stocks is supporting the pair. But the RBA has shifted a more dovish stance and there is downside risk from this coming weeks RBA meeting. Wait for now.
- Wait EUR/USD. – MT is sideways normal. The EUR is pressing toward the bottom of the long-term range. If we start to trade below 1.12 then there is plenty of room for a move towards 1.03. The ECB remains dovish and it looks like rates will remain negative for a fair while yet. Sell below 1.12.
- Wait NZD/USD. – MT is sideways normal. The RBNZ has played catch up with other central banks by surprising markets with its dovish outlook last week suggesting risks are now tilted to the downside. The economy continues to tick along ok, so this seems a response to other central banks positions. The RBNZ would prefer the exchange rate to stay week and with interest rates sliding globally, it does not want to be the exception. I don’t see any good technical entries so best to wait.
- Wait USD/CHF. – MT bear normal. The recovery in stocks and USD strength has halted the downward momentum, but the pair remains in a bear MT. Note EURCHF is breaking below key support. Wait for now.
- Wait USD/CAD. – MT is sideways quiet. Better Canada data and a rising oil price have helped CAD recover and we have shifted into a sideways MT. Wait for now.
- Wait EUR/GBP. – MT is bear normal. There is a lot of volatility in the pair between 0.87 and 0.85. While long-term I do think the pair is a short, the risk is high at the moment so best to stay away.
- Sell EUR/CHF. – MT is bear normal.
- Wait AUD/JPY. – MT is sideways quiet.
- Sell NZD/JPY. – MT is bear normal.
- Wait GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways normal.
- Sell EUR/JPY. – MT is bear normal.
- Sell CAD/JPY. – MT is bear normal.
- Wait CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways normal.
- Wait GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal.
- Wait EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways normal.
- Buy AUD/NZD. – MT is bull normal.
- Sell EUR/AUD. – MT is bear normal.
- Sell GBP/AUD. – MT is bear normal.
- Buy AUD/CAD. – MT is bull normal.
- Sell GBP/CAD. – MT is bear normal.
- Sell EUR/CAD. – MT is bear normal.
- Wait NZD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal.
- Sell GBP/CHF. – MT is bear normal.
- Sell CAD/CHF. – MT is bear normal.
- Sell NZD/CHF. – MT is bear normal.
- Wait AUD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal.
- Wait Gold. – MT is sideways normal.
- Buy Oil. – MT is bull normal.
- BuyS&P 500. – MT is bull normal.
- Wait DAX. – MT is sideways normal.
- Wait Nikkei. – MT is sideways quiet
- Buy T-Notes. – MT is bull normal.
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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.
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