BetBright STATZONE: LIVE Horse Racing, Doncaster (Fri 14th Sept 2018)

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Welcome to the BetBright STATZONE, where we give you the stats and you make the decisions!

The ITV cameras head to Doncaster racecourse this week for the 4-day St Leger Meeting – they will be covering races on Thursday, Friday and Saturday – with races spread across both ITV and ITV4.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on STATZONE with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the big fields – So, let’s get started!

 

Friday 14th September 2018

1.50 – Japan Racing Association Sceptre Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 7f ITV4

13/15 – Never raced at Doncaster before
12/15 – Won between 1-3 times before
11/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
10/15 – Had won over 7f before
10/15 – Drawn in stalls 3-7 (inc)
8/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Came from the top three in the betting
7/15 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
7/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Won by the Hills stable
3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of last 3 runnings)
2/15 – Irish-trained winners
0/15 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
Music Box (8/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10.5/1

STATZONE VERDICT: A huge pot up for grabs here for these juveniles. The Richard Fahey yard have won two of the last four so their runners – Wasntexpectingthat & Get The Rhythm will be looking to enhance that record. Of the two, the Paul Hanagan-ridden Get The Rhythm looks the more fancied after winning well at Thirsk last time out. However, the Richard Hannon yard love to target these lucrative sales races too and their filly AIM POWER looks to hold a big chance. She’s rated 94 but with just 8st 4lbs to carry gets weight all round and based on that looks well in. Yes, she’s rated 13lbs inferior to the likes of The Irish Rover, but receives a handy 12lbs off that O’Brien runner so there shouldn’t be much between them. She also ran on well over 6f last time, so the extra half a furlong looks a plus too. The Irish Rover is the class act though after running well in the Group One July Stakes and Group Two Gimcrack Stakes this season, so it would be a surprise if he’s not in the mix in this easier grade – Ryan Moore rides. Of the rest, Louis Treize caught the eye when winning easily up at Newcastle last time out and holds a lot of fancy entries to suggest connections feel he’s useful. Celebrity Dancer and Kinks are others to note. With a 40% and 31% record with his 2 year-olds at the track then others to mention are the George Scott-trained Crantock Bay and the Saeed Bin Suroor runner – Jfoul.

 

2.25 – Wainwrights Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV4

14/15 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
13/15 – Placed horses from stall 2 or 3
12/15 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
11/15 – Won 1-2 times before
11/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/15 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
10/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
8/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Foaled in April
6/15 – Ran at York last time
5/15 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
5/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
4/15 – Won last time out
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
1/15 – Winners from stall 1
Heartache (6/4) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

STATZONE VERDICT: Trainer Aidan O’Brien won this race 12 months ago and with Hence he looks to hold another decent chance. This has also been a good contest for jockey Ryan Moore, who rides this 3 year-old. Draw 7 looks fine but the only concern would be this horse is looking a tad exposed now with just one win from her 14 career starts. Godolphin’s Laugh Aloud and the Richard Hannon-trained Anna Nerium set a good standard with ratings of 108 and 109 but with 10 of the last 15 winners coming between stalls 3-7 then they will have this trend to overcome being drawn 8 and 10. Having said that, John Gosden trains Laugh Aloud and with a 21% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track she can’t be discounted easily. Ellthea is another to note after a fair run in a Group Two in France last time out. She’s also a course winner here at Donny. We’ve not seen a winner from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 15 years so Pepita and Eirene are the ones that will have that trend to overcome. So, the two I like here are DAN’S DREAM and DANCING STAR. The first-named was a close second in Ireland in a Group Three last time out and should find this slight drop back in trip to his liking after getting collared close home that day. She’s also won with give in the ground, so any more rain will be fine. Dancing Star was a neck second in the Oak Tree Stakes at Goodwood last time and has been running consistently all season despite not winning. She acts with a bit of give, while draw 4 looks ideal. Oisin Murphy is the icing on the cake – he’s ridden the horse twice and been second both times.

 

3:00 – William Hill Mallard Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f132y ITV4

15/15 – Drawn in stall 11 or lower
14/15 – Aged 5 or younger
14/15 – Had won at least twice before
12/15 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
11/15 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
11/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/15 – Winning distance 1 length or more
10/15 – Carried 8-10 or more
8/15 – Had 5 or more runs that season
7/15 – Had run at Doncaster before (5 won)
6/15 – Ran at York last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Returned a double-figure price
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/15 – Trained by Michael Bell
Time To Study (11/8 fav) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

STATZONE VERDICT: The Mark Johnston-trained Time To Study won this race 12 months ago but has rather lost his way this season, plus is now 5lbs higher this year He’d be dangerous to totally rule out and certainly looks value in the betting but would need to bounce back from some average recent runs – he is, however, the only proven course and distance winner in the field. Despite being run over 1m6f the draw has played it’s part too with ALL of the last 15 winners coming from stalls 11 or lower. This wold, therefore, be a negative for the likes of On To Victory (12), Higher Power (13) and Reverend Jacobs (14). If you want to take the draw stat a bit further than 12 of the last 15 winners actually came from stalls 8 or lower. Godolphin’s Walton Street will be popular after running a blinder in the Group Three Geoffrey Freer Stakes. The drop in grade will help, but draw 11 might be a negative. Just In Time and Ben Vrackie can’t be ruled out but the two I like here are SPEEDO BOY and TITUS. The former will be ridden by Ryan Moore and he was a fine third of a similar race at York last time out. He stays further than this 1m6f trip (2m winner this season) and also won’t mind any more rain – draw 9 looks ideal. The other pick – Titus – dotted-up at York last time and going up 11lbs for that did it so well that he might be worth sticking with. Yes, this is a harder race, but he travelled so well that day and could have even more to come over this longer trip (up from 1m4f). Ger O’Neill continues in the saddle and takes off a handy 5lbs again too. He’s won on a good-to-soft surface in the past so underfoot conditions are not a concern either.

 

3:35 – Doncaster Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 2m2f ITV4

15/17 – Had won over 1m6f or further before
15/17 – Had 2 or more runs that season
14/17 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
12/17 – Had run at Doncaster before (6 won)
12/17 – Placed last time out
11/17 – Had won 5 or more times before
11/17 – Aged 6 or younger
10/17 – Ran at York last time out
10/17 – Previous Group race winners
10/17 – Winning distance 1 or more lengths
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
6/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained in Ireland
Desert Skyline (2/1) won the race in 2017
Sheikhzayedroad won the race in 2016
Pallasator won the race in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3

STATZONE VERDICT: The David Simcock yard, who have a 29% record with their older horses at the track, look to hold a strong hand here with the likes of Algometer and the 2016 winner of this race – Sheikhzayedroad – they are the two highest-rated in the field. However, they are also both hard horses to catch right at present and despite this looking a below-par renewal are overlooked. The Willie Mullins team are mob-handed with three Ricci runners, but of the trio the Ryan Moore-ridden THOMAS HOBSON looks their main hope. This 107-rated 8 year-old was a close fifth in the Irish St Leger Trial last time out and with a light campaign this season should be spot-on for this. He was a fair second in the race 12 months ago too – beaten just over a length – but this year’s renewal looks an easier race. His form here at Doncaster reads well too – 1st, 2nd – while jockey Ryan Moore knows how to get the job done in this contest, having won the pot twice in the last four years. Of the rest, Saunter is another past course winner but was only 9th in the Ebor Handicap last time out so this rise in grade would require more. Finally, LORD YEATS was unplaced in the Ebor too, but the much softer ground here will be more to his liking and he’s at least run well in Group company in the past to suggest this class is not beyond him. In an average renewal, plus in softer ground he can certainly be expected to go much better than last time.

 

That should be all you need, if you can’t make the right decisions with all that info, there’s no helping you!

The post BetBright STATZONE: LIVE Horse Racing, Doncaster (Fri 14th Sept 2018) appeared first on BetBright Blog.

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